Political trends for 2010

WHO THE VOTERS ARE

The results of the 2010 US Census (questionnaires will be mailed in March) will not only determine the shape of the House of Representatives in 2012 — it will tell us what the cultural, ethnic, social, economic and demographic make-up of the United States of America will look like for years to come. Peter Francese is a demographic analyst who has been forecasting decennial census trends for the past 40 years. Here are the biggest shifts he predicts will be shown by 2010 Census:

* There will be 70 million grandparents in America by 2010, compared to 47 million in 1990. The recession, which has hit younger workers hardest, has resulted in more multi-generational living arrangements, with those 55 and over having the most disposable income and economic growth.

* The rise of women. Francese predicts that women will comprise more than half the US work force by mid-2010. This is due in part to the recession; sectors dominated by women (education and health care) were not as hard-hit as those dominated by men (construction, manufacturing). Also: More women graduated college than men for the first time ever in 2009.

* Our polyglot population. At 200 million, white non-Hispanics remain the majority in the US. But Hispanics are the fastest-growing minority in the country, and by 2060, Francese predicts we will be a “minority-majority nation.”

* The flight from the Northeast and Midwest. Again, this is largely due to the recession. These two regions have been bleeding jobs, while the South and the West have seen an increase in job creation. “The migration pattern is truly breathtaking,” says Francese, who adds that it’s not just due to immigration: Taxes are lower, the cost of manufacturing is cheaper, and there is less unionization in these regions. He predicts the first two states to bounce back economically will be Texas (which has seen the greatest increase in residents from 2008-09) and Florida; states with older populations will take longer. New York, by the way, is tied with three other states as the 16th oldest in the nation.

— Maureen Callahan

ENEMIES, FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC

The usual suspects will still be in the security-threat line-up in 2010. Afghanistan and Pakistan will worsen; Iran will speed up its pursuit of nukes; terrorists and dictators will continue to double down on an American president they perceive as weak; and China will intensify its subversion of our economy.

But 2010 also may be a year of ugly security surprises. As we tie our troops down in ever-larger numbers in Afghanistan, al Qaeda’s spreading deep into Yemen, Somalia and the Muslim-Christian fault-line states of Africa. Our enemies have the initiative.

In the Middle East, Dubai’s bankruptcy could expose hundreds of billions in bad loans and bogus investments throughout the Gulf region, creating havoc. Our pseudo-allies, the Saudis, have been drawn into combat in Yemen again, where government control is disintegrating. The blow-back could strike the world’s key oil producer just as its neighbors go broke. (On the positive side, Islamists of different stripes are now killing each other.)

To the east, the crucial problem with Pakistan may not be internal strife, but the government’s continued support of terrorism aimed at India. The potential for a nuclear exchange dwarfs the Iranian threat.

Meanwhile, big trouble looms closer to home. The intensifying narco-insurgency against the Mexican government threatens our citizens, directly and indirectly, every day. The catastrophic situation in northern Mexico — not Islamist terrorism — is the leading threat to US security.

A short flight south, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez is spoiling for a fight. With his economic policies a shambles, Chavez supports provocative violence against neighboring Colombia. Chavez funds, equips and provides sanctuaries for brutal Colombian guerrillas — and he wouldn’t mind a war to divert Venezuelans from the mess he’s made.

Hop back on the southbound plane and you reach Argentina, where the hard-left Kirchner family regime may move to subvert democracy’s remains, provoking a violent reaction (the Obama administration would back the Kirchners against the Argentine middle class).

Elsewhere, the pressure’s building on corrupt or failed regimes, from Nigeria through Central Africa to Southeast Asia. Even “stable” Europe faces severe economic crises from Greece and Spain to the Baltic states. At best, 2010 will be a year of emergencies.

Which security-related threat worries me the most? It’s right here, in Washington. Even as it pretends away Islamist and narco-terror threats, the Obama administration is preparing the gravest assault on our democratic system since the Civil War: 2010 will see sweeping amnesty proposals for illegal immigrants — with the goal of creating an unbreakable Democratic Party majority built on a criminal Lumpenproletariat (and yes, illegal aliens are criminals — that’s what “illegal” means).

In terms of threatening our freedom, system of government and way of life, the Obama administration may make al Qaeda look like amateurs in 2010.

— Ralph Peters, Post Opinion columnist and the author of “The War After Armageddon.”

NEW YORK, OFF TO THE RACES

Get ready, New York voters, for the greatest high stakes political rollercoaster ride in decades this year.

Every statewide office and all 212 seats in the Legislature are up in November but, more importantly, the direction of the nearly bankrupt state will be up for grabs as well.

At no time since liberal Republican big-spender Gov. Nelson Rockefeller’s four terms of office came to an end in 1974 (finished for the last few months by Lt. Gov. Malcolm Wilson) has the Empire State’s electorate been as ready for change as it is today.

Polls show an overwhelming number of voters believe New York is failing on every front — from the economy, to the tax burden, to the quality of life, to government ethics.

The most important contest will be for governor, and the big question is whether Gov. Paterson can beat back a certain Democratic primary challenge from Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the most popular politician in the state.

Key Democrats privately give Paterson, who took office in March 2008 in the wake of Eliot Spitzer’s resignation, little chance of surviving and many predict that, notwithstanding his insistence to the contrary, he’ll bow out in the end.

Republican prospects for governor against Cuomo are grim, with former Long Island Congressman Rick Lazio, who was defeated by Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2000 race for US Senate, and Erie County Executive Chris Collins, a businessman turned politician, vying for the nomination, with Lazio the early front-runner.

Some impressive new talent may come to the fore in the race to succeed Cuomo as attorney general.

Potential Democratic candidates include Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice, Assemblymen Michael Gianaris of Queens and Richard Brodsky of Westchester, Sen. Eric Schneiderman of Manhattan, former Nassau Executive Thomas Suozzi, former state Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo, and Paterson criminal justice coordinator Denise O’Donnell.

The winner will likely face Republican Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan Jr.

State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, appointed to his job in 2007, remains weak in the polls and could face a Democratic primary challenge from failed mayoral contender and former City Comptroller William Thompson and a tough general election bid from Republican John Faso, who almost beat Hevesi in 2002.

US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, the former Albany-area one-term congresswoman appointed to her job by Paterson and who, by every measure — name recognition, job approval rating, widespread criticism — is vulnerable, could face an uphill battle.

But so far no serious Democratic primary challenger or GOP opponent has emerged. Meanwhile, the GOP may not even challenge the reelection of Sen. Charles Schumer.

— Frederic U. Dicker, State Editor

CITY OF EMPTY POCKETS

It’ll be a rough ride for New York City.

Mayor Bloomberg has been dropping hints that while the economy may have bottomed out, residents here face significant service cuts as the city struggles with multi-billion-dollar deficits.

On Jan. 28, the mayor will be releasing his preliminary budget for fiscal 2011 and he’ll have to decide which voting blocs to infuriate to close a $4.1 billion budget gap.

“There’ll probably be a lot of people on the steps of City Hall protesting the mayor,” Bloomberg predicted last week. “I’ve learned how to live with that.”

Whatever the mayor proposes will ultimately have to be approved by the City Council, a place that’s going to become mighty interesting in 2010. In each of the last eight years, the mayor could generally count on the council to do his bidding. Think term limits and congestion pricing.

But the council has taken a tilt to the left and the recent vote killing a retail mall in Kingsbridge Armory, leaving the square-block building empty for the foreseeable future, proves it’s prepared to take the most radical action to block the mayor’s development priorities.

In just about five months, Bloomberg will get to test the council’s resolve again when he presents a trimmed-down budget for its approval. He’ll also get to test the resolve of municipal unions, who’ve gotten used to generous raises without substantive givebacks. That’s not going to play in the 2010 economy.

Of course, the biggest question of the year is: what does Bloomberg have up his sleeve? The mayor is a big-picture guy, open to fresh ideas and always looking for a new way to create some buzz. During the election campaign, he declared the need for “new blood” to invigorate the administration.

Since then, Bloomberg’s last three appointments have been a 40-year veteran of the FDNY to head that agency and two City Hall aides to run the environmental protection and technology agencies. So was he just sprinkling pre-Election Day fairy dust or has he got other ways of innovating at a time of fiscal constraint, which was the reason he got elected to a third term in the first place?

— David Seifman, City Hall Bureau Chief

DEVELOPMENT BACK ON TRACK?

Some parts of New York feel like they’re in a deep, post-apocalyptic funk — vacant storefronts, pot-holed streets, broken sidewalks, stalled construction sites, garbage-strewn blocks, untended graffiti. Our boom-and-bust city has pulled out of worse before and surely can do so again. But we need government to push hard on its end — supplying infrastructure in now-fallow neighborhoods and moving forward important projects that have been mired in bureaucracy and strife.

Of these the most important to the city’s future is Moynihan Station, the ambitious attempt to convert the old Farley Post Office on Eighth Avenue, across from Madison Square Garden, into a glorious new Penn Station. Seemingly moribund since the winter of 2008, Moynihan is back on track now, in part because Amtrak’s new chief, former state transportation commissioner Joseph Boardman, agreed to relocate his agency to the new train hall so long as Amtrak could share in future retail revenues. That deal was just struck in December, so that Amtrak is now at last onboard.

In a neighboring but unrelated move, the City Council approved the West Side rail yards rezoning, which will allow the mixed-use development of 13 yards, directly south of Moynihan Station, with commercial and apartment buildings. The redevelopment of the long-fallow, rail-yard-dominated West Side will start in 2010.

Across the East River in Long Island City, Queens, the Economic Development Corporation will begin on-site infrastructure for the Hunters Point South development, which will build 5,000 housing units on 30 acres of prime waterfront. The site is magnificent, but like most of the city’s old industrial sites, is bereft of the basics — sewage, roads, parks. To judge just how quickly and effectively good parks can transform an area, New Yorkers can look to the Brooklyn Bridge Park that, after much contention, will open in 2010.

— Julia Vitullo-Martin, director of the Center for Urban Innovation at the Regional Plan Association.

FAILING THE MIDTERMS

After a heavy year of legislating, Congress’ main focus in 2010 will be one thing — the Nov. 2 midterm elections.

As the New Year begins, President Obama and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate have yet to complete their increasingly unpopular effort to enact major health care reform legislation. But with the possibility of a bill being signed into law as soon as late January, Congress and the White House are poised to turn their attention to politics.

Of course, the Capitol Hill machine will not shut down.

The Obama administration is pushing the Senate to act on climate change legislation (the House passed its bill last summer); congressional leaders are working on financial regulatory reform; a push to overhaul the nation’s immigration system, which died prematurely during the Bush administration, could be revived; and lawmakers likely will move to address domestic security concerns in the wake of a foiled Christmas Day terrorist attack.

But the House and Senate — with an eye toward the midterm elections — are likely to spend most of their time in Washington tackling jobs and the economy.

Democrats, as the party in control of both houses of Congress and the White House, stand to suffer the heaviest losses on Nov. 2 if the 10% unemployment rate is not markedly lower come Labor Day. The Republicans appear unlikely at this point to win the 40 seats necessary to take back the House. But analysts are not ruling it out. In the Senate, the GOP has a big hill to climb, although their prospects for gaining several seats and reacquiring the ability to sustain a filibuster are no longer out of the question.

Usually, the party that does not control the White House has a good midterm Election Day. When combined with current polls that show Obama’s approval rating just below 50% and a drop in satisfaction with congressional Democrats, Republicans could be in for their first successful national election since 2004.

Regardless of who stands to benefit when the American people head to the polls this fall, one thing is certain: Members of Congress from both political parties are unlikely to engage in serious legislating once the summer sets in, as Democrats and Republicans look to get out of town so that they can spend their time at home campaigning to keep their jobs.

Five big seats that could switch:

* Kansas 3. Several Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination in eastern Kansas’ 3rd district, which has historically leaned Republican. Rep. Dennis Moore (D) is retiring.

* Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.). Dodd is perhaps the most vulnerable of the incumbent Democratic senators. His GOP challenger will be chosen in August.

* Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Reid remains unpopular at home, and has been consistently out-polled by potential Republican challengers. The GOP nominee will be chosen on June 8.

* New Mexico 2. Rep. Harry Teague (D) is facing a challenge from former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who vacated southern New Mexico’s 2nd district in 2008 for what turned out to be an unsuccessful Senate bid. Now Pearce wants his old job back.

* Mississippi 1. Rep. Travis Childers (D) won northern Mississippi’s overwhelmingly conservative 1st district in a special election in early 2008, when the GOP was down and out. The Republicans are high on state Sen. Alan Nunnelee’s chances of taking it back.

— David M. Drucker, staff writer, Roll Call